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An analysis of impacts of currency devaluation on economic growth in Vietnam in 2000-2012

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Issue Date
2013
Author
Nguyen Minh Hai
Co-Author
Phan Tat Hien
Dang Huyen Linh
Host Item
Journal of Economic Development
ISSN
1859 -1124
Metadata

Show full item record


Issue Date
2013
Author
Nguyen Minh Hai
Co-Author
Phan Tat Hien
Dang Huyen Linh
Metadata

Show full item record

Metadata Views

34

Content Views

0

Abstract

The paper aims at exploring effects of currency devaluation on Vietnam's economic growth. Our approach is to employ smooth transition regression (STR) to estimate relationship between real exchange rate, money supply, and public expenditure with Vietnam's GDP in 2000-2012. The results show that currency devaluation can increase output if growth of money supply is less than 24.46%, and it may produce negative effects on the output when the money supply grows higher than the above threshold.

Keywords
Currency devaluation, Economic growth, Smooth transition regression (STR), Exchange rate, Money supply growth output, Vietnam
URI
http://digital.lib.ueh.edu.vn/handle/UEH/55172
http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=9dd9591c-47c3-41a2-8e7f-d5d74e19846b
Publisher
Trường Đại học Kinh tế Tp. Hồ Chí Minh
DOI
http://doi.org/10.24311/jed/2013.217.07
Reference
Ahmed, S. (2003), Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Latin America and Implications for Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes, Journal of Development Economics, 72, 181-202.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2003), Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A survey Article , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2006), Are Devaluations Contractionary? Evidence from Panel Cointegration , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2.

Brüggemann, R. & H. Lütkepohl (2001), Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application to a U.S.Monetary System, in R. Friedmann, L. Knüppel & H. Lütkepohl (eds.), Econometric Studies: A Festschrift in Honour of Joachim Frohn, LIT Verlag, Münster, 107-128.

Chou, W.L, & C-C. Chao (2001), Are Currency Devaluations Effective? A Panel Unit Root Test. Economics Letters, 72, 19-25.

Edwards, S. (1989), Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment, MIT Press, Cambridge,MA.

Gács, J. (2003), Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence, Empirica, 30, 271-303.

Halpern, L. & C. Wyplosz (1997), Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies, IMF Staff Papers, 44, December, 430-461.

Lê Quốc Lý (2004), Tỉ giá hối ðoái - những vấn ðề lí luận và thực tiễn ðiều hành ở Việt Nam, Thống kê Publisher, Hà Nội.

Lê Vãn Tu & Nguyễn Quốc Khanh (2000), Một số vấn ðề về chính sách tỉ giá hối ðoái cho mục tiêu phát triển kinh tế ở Việt Nam, Thống kê Publisher, Hà Nội.

Mejia-Reyes, P., D. Osborn & M. Sensier (2003), Modeling Real Exchange Rate Effects on Growth in Latin America , Discussion paper series / Centre for Growth and Business Cycle.

Miteza, Ilir (2006), Exchange Rates and Non-Linear Dynamics in Output: Evidence from Bulgaria , Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. IX - 2006, No 1 (91-115).

Nguyễn Khắc Minh (2009), Cơ sở lí thuyết chuỗi thời gian phi tuyến và ứng dụng vào xây dựng mô hình phân tích lạm phát cho Việt Nam , a report within the European Technical Assistance Programme for Vietnam, Component 5: Statistical Analysis and Policy Tools at the MPI.

Terasvirta, T. (2004), Smooth Transition Regression Modelling, in H. Lütkepohl & M. Krätzig (eds.), Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 222-242.

Vũ Quốc Huy, Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng & Vũ Phạm Hải Ðãng (2012), Tỷ giá hối ðoái giai ðoạn 2000-2011: Các nhân tố quyết ðịnh, mức ðộ sai lệch và tác ðộng ðối với xuất khẩu , Tri thức Publisher.

Ahmed, S. (2003), Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Latin America and Implications for Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes, Journal of Development Economics, 72, 181-202.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2003), Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A survey Article , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2006), Are Devaluations Contractionary? Evidence from Panel Cointegration , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2.

Brüggemann, R. & H. Lütkepohl (2001), Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application ...
See More
Appears in Collections:JABES in English

There are no files associated with this item.



An analysis of impacts of currency devaluation on economic growth in Vietnam in 2000-2012

TweetLikeShare# Shares: 0

Metadata Views

34

Content Views

0

Issue Date
2013
Author
Nguyen Minh Hai
Co-Author
Phan Tat Hien
Dang Huyen Linh
Host Item
Journal of Economic Development
ISSN
1859 -1124
Metadata

Show full item record


Issue Date
2013
Author
Nguyen Minh Hai
Co-Author
Phan Tat Hien
Dang Huyen Linh
Metadata

Show full item record

Metadata Views

34

Content Views

0

Abstract

The paper aims at exploring effects of currency devaluation on Vietnam's economic growth. Our approach is to employ smooth transition regression (STR) to estimate relationship between real exchange rate, money supply, and public expenditure with Vietnam's GDP in 2000-2012. The results show that currency devaluation can increase output if growth of money supply is less than 24.46%, and it may produce negative effects on the output when the money supply grows higher than the above threshold.

Keywords
Currency devaluation, Economic growth, Smooth transition regression (STR), Exchange rate, Money supply growth output, Vietnam
URI
http://digital.lib.ueh.edu.vn/handle/UEH/55172
http://jabes.ueh.edu.vn/Home/SearchArticle?article_Id=9dd9591c-47c3-41a2-8e7f-d5d74e19846b
Publisher
Trường Đại học Kinh tế Tp. Hồ Chí Minh
DOI
http://doi.org/10.24311/jed/2013.217.07
Reference
Ahmed, S. (2003), Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Latin America and Implications for Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes, Journal of Development Economics, 72, 181-202.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2003), Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A survey Article , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2006), Are Devaluations Contractionary? Evidence from Panel Cointegration , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2.

Brüggemann, R. & H. Lütkepohl (2001), Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application to a U.S.Monetary System, in R. Friedmann, L. Knüppel & H. Lütkepohl (eds.), Econometric Studies: A Festschrift in Honour of Joachim Frohn, LIT Verlag, Münster, 107-128.

Chou, W.L, & C-C. Chao (2001), Are Currency Devaluations Effective? A Panel Unit Root Test. Economics Letters, 72, 19-25.

Edwards, S. (1989), Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and Adjustment, MIT Press, Cambridge,MA.

Gács, J. (2003), Transition, EU Accession and Structural Convergence, Empirica, 30, 271-303.

Halpern, L. & C. Wyplosz (1997), Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies, IMF Staff Papers, 44, December, 430-461.

Lê Quốc Lý (2004), Tỉ giá hối ðoái - những vấn ðề lí luận và thực tiễn ðiều hành ở Việt Nam, Thống kê Publisher, Hà Nội.

Lê Vãn Tu & Nguyễn Quốc Khanh (2000), Một số vấn ðề về chính sách tỉ giá hối ðoái cho mục tiêu phát triển kinh tế ở Việt Nam, Thống kê Publisher, Hà Nội.

Mejia-Reyes, P., D. Osborn & M. Sensier (2003), Modeling Real Exchange Rate Effects on Growth in Latin America , Discussion paper series / Centre for Growth and Business Cycle.

Miteza, Ilir (2006), Exchange Rates and Non-Linear Dynamics in Output: Evidence from Bulgaria , Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. IX - 2006, No 1 (91-115).

Nguyễn Khắc Minh (2009), Cơ sở lí thuyết chuỗi thời gian phi tuyến và ứng dụng vào xây dựng mô hình phân tích lạm phát cho Việt Nam , a report within the European Technical Assistance Programme for Vietnam, Component 5: Statistical Analysis and Policy Tools at the MPI.

Terasvirta, T. (2004), Smooth Transition Regression Modelling, in H. Lütkepohl & M. Krätzig (eds.), Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 222-242.

Vũ Quốc Huy, Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng & Vũ Phạm Hải Ðãng (2012), Tỷ giá hối ðoái giai ðoạn 2000-2011: Các nhân tố quyết ðịnh, mức ðộ sai lệch và tác ðộng ðối với xuất khẩu , Tri thức Publisher.

Ahmed, S. (2003), Sources of Economic Fluctuations in Latin America and Implications for Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes, Journal of Development Economics, 72, 181-202.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2003), Are Devaluations Expansionary or Contractionary? A survey Article , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & I. Miteza (2006), Are Devaluations Contractionary? Evidence from Panel Cointegration , Economic Issues, Vol. 8, Part 2.

Brüggemann, R. & H. Lütkepohl (2001), Lag Selection in Subset VAR Models with an Application ...
See More
Appears in Collections:JABES in English

There are no files associated with this item.



Citation

APA    Hai, N. M. (2013). An analysis of impacts of currency devaluation on economic growth in Vietnam in 2000-2012. (Journal Article). http://digital.lib.ueh.edu.vn/handle/UEH/55172
   
MLA    Nguyen Minh Hai. An analysis of impacts of currency devaluation on economic growth in Vietnam in 2000-2012. 2013. Trường Đại học Kinh tế Tp. Hồ Chí Minh. Journal Article. http://digital.lib.ueh.edu.vn/handle/UEH/55172
   
Chicago    Nguyen Minh Hai. "An analysis of impacts of currency devaluation on economic growth in Vietnam in 2000-2012. "(Journal Article, Trường Đại học Kinh tế Tp. Hồ Chí Minh, 2013)
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