Impacts of climate change on food security in Vietnam

Abstract

This paper studies how climate change impacts on national food security. Econometric model is used to estimate from the secondary data as pool data of Mekong Delta in period 2001-2010. The Cobb-Douglas functional form is applied for the average yield function. The result indicates that in Cobb-Douglass model, as the temperature rises by 1%, the estimated decrease the rice yield is 0.45% and the rice yield also decreases 0.15% on average when the precipitation increases 1%, holding all other factors constant. The qualitative analysis and simulations with different scenarios are also applied to build on Vietnam’s food security scenarios up to 2030. The findings show that Vietnam has to face the lack of rice for consuming up to 2030 in IPSL-2030 climate change scenario. This country needs to add 4.2 million tons of rice to ensure food security at the national level. Meanwhile, in GISS-2030 and MORNE-2030 scenarios, Vietnam is still ensure for domestic consume, and the surplus rice for export in these two scenarios are 0.4 and 1.5 million tons, respectively.