When the market got the first dose: Stock volatility and vaccination campaign in COVID-19 period

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the news of clinical trials for vaccines and mass vaccinations have brought renewed optimism for stabilizing the economy and financial markets. However, the mental stress of investors or doubt about the effectiveness of government policies to cope with economic disruptions has caused stock market volatility. We investigate the significance of the vaccination rate in alleviating the global stock market volatility which is measured by the GJR�GARCH model. We discover that a higher vaccine initiation rate has a positive effect on global stock markets, especially in developed countries and areas with higher rates than their average. Our findings remain reliable even when using different projected volatility models and other estimates of the main independent variables. Mass immunization also implies that governments will not have to take extreme measures to handle the pandemic, which alleviates investor worries about compliance and the prolonged effects of COVID-19. Our research indicates that global stock markets are providing insight into the economic value of the development of COVID-19 vaccines, even before public vaccinations start.