Interconnectedness and risk profile of hydrogen against major asset classes

Abstract

This study examines the interconnectedness and risk profile of hydrogen in comparison to other assets from December 2019 to April 2022, using a time-varying copula approach. The findings reveal that hydrogen's relationships with conventional commodities and markets can shift significantly during extreme uncertainty. The COVID-19 pandemic had a marked impact on hydrogen's market connections. However, hydrogen did not uniformly increase linkages, highlighting its distinct profile even as an energy commodity. Despite its sensitivity to crises, hydrogen's reactions were varied, emphasizing the necessity for customized interpretations. Calculation of value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk and Delta CoVaR demonstrated that green bonds exhibited the lowest investment risks across frequencies, which can be attributed to factors such as government support and growing demand. In the case of hydrogen, the risk metrics were inconsistent, reflecting its status as an early-stage adoption asset with niche applications in transportation and industry. These findings have key implications for managing risk associated with energy transition and for facilitating the adoption of hydrogen. The empirical insights provided herein can aid policymakers in developing supportive regulations and incentives to expedite the scaling of hydrogen. Moreover, Investors can leverage hydrogen's risk quantification for portfolio optimization and hedging strategies. Overall, by elucidating hydrogen's unique dynamics, this study informs stakeholder decisions to facilitate the hydrogen economy.