The impact of financial stress on consumer confidence: evidence from survey data

Abstract

Purpose: This paper explores the impact of financial stress (FS) on consumer confidence (CC) using survey data. Design/methodology/approach: We use novel household-level survey data on CC by the Reserve Bank of India. FS data come from the financial stress index (FSI) released by the Tracking Asian Integration of Asian Development Bank. The sample period is 2015–2023. We align the lagged monthly values of FSI with the household-level data to uncover the impact of FS on household confidence in the economy. Findings: Rising FS leads to increased pessimism among households regarding the state of the economy. Educated and well-off households are more sensitive to FS. Moreover, FS significantly impacts confidence regarding households’ own consumption basket and economic scenarios. A disaggregated analysis reveals that FS related to foreign exchange and debt spread causes greater pessimism among households than in the equity market and banking sector. Additionally, the impacts of FS are asymmetric, with above-average FS lowering household attitudes, while below-average FS increases optimism about the economy’s outlook. Originality/value: To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the impact of FS on household CC using household-level data for an emerging economy such as India. Micro-level data allow us to explore the impact of FS on household perceptions of current economic situations and future outlooks. We also uncover the impact of FS on households’ confidence in their own economic outcomes.