The effect of investors’ emotional and depressive states on perceived returns and risk

Abstract

Purpose: Expected returns and risk are critical variables in financial analysis. This study demonstrates that investors’ perceptions of these factors are shaped not only by fundamental economic variables, as traditional finance suggests but also by psychological states such as distress and mood. Design/methodology/approach: Data from Thai investors were collected through an online survey. We used regression and logistic regression to test the hypotheses. Findings: Positive moods increase perceptions of expected returns and risk, while negative moods reduce these perceptions. Higher depression levels negatively impact investors’ perceptions of expected risk. Investors’ mood intensity, especially negative moods and higher depression levels, negatively impacts risk perception in the short term. Additionally, negative moods decrease the likelihood of optimism toward risk perception in the long term. Practical implications: Financial advisors and investment firms can enhance their services by integrating psychological assessments into their client evaluations. Such assessments must be handled with great care, ensuring that clients give explicit consent and that their psychological data are protected in accordance with ethical standards. This approach allows for a deeper understanding of clients’ emotional and psychological states, leading to more personalized investment strategies. Additionally, investment firms can develop tailored products that address investors’ emotional and psychological needs, promoting more balanced decision-making and improving overall satisfaction. Originality/value: We assess perceptions of expected returns and risk by collecting data directly from investors. We also evaluate investors’ psychological traits and moods with widely recognized psychological tools, including the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule.