Forecasting global economic recession through us inflation and fed fund interest rates

Abstract

The world geopolitical situation continuously experienced many unpredictable fluctuations: the COVID-19 epidemic and the war in Ukraine have made the world economy difficult. Accompanied by reduced consumer confidence in the market, rising inflation due to supply disruptions put pressure on prices, forcing central banks to raise interest rates to control inflation. However, this could push an economy that is already suffering a lot to face a higher chance of a recession. Faced with this situation, the project will apply the data science method to macroeconomics, with two inflation indicators as the US federal interest rates and inflation rates in the past and present, to predict whether a global economy is possible.