Studying about capital liberalization, economic growth, and moral hazard from the context of global financial crisis. Lessons for Vietnam’s sustainable finance

Abstract

The primary goal of this research is to explore and analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth (GDP), with special emphasis on capital account liberalization and moral hazard. Data were collected from 22 countries over a 24-year period (2000–2023), totaling 528 observations sourced from reputable organizations such as the World Bank, OECD, and IMF. To select an appropriate model, the study employs descriptive statistical analysis, a correlation coefficient matrix, the Hausman test, multicollinearity tests, and heteroscedasticity tests. Additionally, the authors assess the necessity of using time dummy variables and conduct Wald tests and Wooldridge tests to evaluate autocorrelation and multicollinearity, thereby identifying the optimal model among OLS, FEM, and REM. To address the issue of heteroscedasticity, the study applies the GLS estimation method. As a result, the conclusions of this research are primarily based on the GLS results. The GLS regression results reveal that among the five independent variables examined: GFCF has a positive and statistically significant impact on GDP, indicating that fixed capital investment is essential for driving economic growth. STOCK also has a positive effect, though its impact is less pronounced than that of GFCF. TRADE and LABOR have negative effects on GDP, with the impact of TRADE being significant. The SuddenStopDummy variable, representing sudden financial shocks, has a negative and statistically significant impact, reflecting a decline in economic growth during periods of financial crises. This research provides an in-depth perspective on the changing impacts of macroeconomic factors on GDP before, during, and after the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The findings can serve as a valuable tool for policymakers and investors in evaluating the factors influencing economic growth. In the future, the authors plan to expand their research by considering additional factors and employing advanced methodologies to offer a more comprehensive view of the connection between capital account liberalization, moral hazard, and economic growth.